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Strategies and markets - 2017


Adaptability and flexibility will be key to markets in 2018

Macroeconomics, equities, fixed income, asset allocation – consult our new 2018 Outlook report to find out what experts at Natixis Asset Management expect for the year ahead and read about the six major challenges that will face investors.


Sustained growth in the Eurozone since the beginning of the year

Growth has been robust since the beginning of 2017. In the second quarter, the economic activity was up by 2.5% after 2% during the first quarter and 2.4% in the last three months of 2016 (annual rates).


Soft Brexit …or how to do a swift about-turn

In the wake of the UK elections, the ensuing confusion suggests an increasing likelihood of a soft Brexit, as Theresa May does not have a majority and will have to deal with the situation as it stands. However, it cannot, and will not, be quite that simple as this would mean going back on the result of the Brexit referendum.


New currency in France – Uncertainties and Instability

Europe is a key factor in the presidential campaign, even though this theme gained minimal coverage during the two televised debates. Europe is a key differentiating factor for the four candidates who are leading in the polls, and so it must be the main decisive factor in the elector’s choice between the candidates.


Fed and ECB: monetary strategy convergence is not imminent

The current dynamics of monetary policies is fascinating.
The US central bank, the Federal Reserve or Fed, has just announced implementation at the end of the year of a policy that breaks markedly with its strategy since December 2008. The Fed finally seems to be coming out of the financial crisis that kicked off in 2007/2008. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is sticking to its very accommodative policy on a long-term basis. The Eurozone is unable to let go of the monetary crutches it adopted after the 2008 and 2012 crises.


Innovation and Employment – Part I

The issue of robots and employment emerged recently during the French election campaign, with presidential candidate Benoît Hamon discussing two aspects of this matter at great length. The first aspect is job shortages caused by robotization of the economy: the result of this shift is to make basic universal income a necessity to offset the impact of these shortages on French citizens’ income. The second area involves taxing robots in order to finance the social model as well as education. I will look into these issues in detail in three successive columns. The first will deal with the traditional relationship between innovation and employment, the second will focus on the introduction of artificial intelligence and the third will discuss the issue of taxing robots and explore the key question of who owns these machines.


Exit from the Euro Area: Uncertainties and Risks

The presidential and general election dates are fast approaching in France and the issues at stake are becoming clearer. One question that keeps coming back to the fore is France’s exit from the Eurozone. Commentators focus most particularly on what would happen in the immediate aftermath, once the country formally exits the currency union, and they are quite right to do so, as a number of very relevant questions need to be raised.