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Allocation Perspective

Fiscal tantrum(p)


- US authorities’ move to massive fiscal stimulus against backdrop of full employment points to dangerous overheating for the US economy in 2018.

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Brave New World


- Sharp acceleration of asset prices in the wake of the strengthening global economy, in a pattern similar to the euphoric trends of 2005-2006: weak dollar, flat US curve, rising commodities and outperformance of emerging market assets

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Autumn in Beijing


- We maintain a constructive scenario for global growth in 2018, under the constraint of a stronger dollar and under the condition of a further flattening of the US yield curve.

- Fed policy (Fed funds rate, balancesheet), fiscal reform (of which capital repatriation measures) in a quasi-full employment situation favor the dollar versus developed and emerging currencies.

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The triumph of Abenomics


-Strong, synchronized and ongoing non-inflationary
world growth (4%).
-Central banks are still concerned over sluggish inflation, yet are planning to implement significant monetary tightening in 2018 – for the Fed it’s a case of financial stability, while technical reasons are motivating the Bank of Japan (shortage of JGBs), political reasons are behind ECB moves (issue share limits), and external factors explain the Bank of England’s actions (current account deficit, household debt).

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Metals and yield curve: the red and the black


- World growth close to 4%, but the slowdown in credit flows in the US/Europe/China, along with quantitative tightening from central banks, point to a turnaround in this trend in 2018.

- Weak dollar and yield curve steering moves by the Bank of Japan drive risk appetite via carry and put-writing strategies.

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Central banks: from doves to hawks?


- Strong and synchronized global growth, with still no marked acceleration in inflation.
- Tension on long-term rates following tightening rhetoric from several G10 central banks.

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OPEC strategy: checkmate?


- Confirmation of the first signs of a gradual slowdown in China and the US. Growth remains robust in Japan and the euro area.
- Trump’s economic agenda still at a standstill.

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Dear US equities …


- The Fed hikes rates while the US legislative apparatus is sinking in the quicksand
of the American Healthcare Act and lifting the debt ceiling.
- China confirms it has successfully cooled down its economy.
- We are growing closer to the period of political risks in Europe (France, Italy).

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Doctor Yellen and Mister Trump


Read market analysis by Raphaël Gallardo, Multi-asset strategist at Investment and Client Solutions investment division.

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