Contact | Glossary | Natixis links | Recruitment

Raphaël Gallardo

Investment & Client Solutions Strategist

Metals and yield curve: the red and the black

25.09.2017 - Raphaël Gallardo

Read market analysis by Raphaël Gallardo, Multi-asset strategist at Investment and Client Solutions investment division.

- World growth close to 4%, but the slowdown in credit flows in the US/Europe/China, along with quantitative tightening from central banks, point to a turnaround in this trend in 2018.

- Weak dollar and yield curve steering moves by the Bank of Japan drive risk appetite via carry and put-writing strategies.

- Strong recovery in the dollar from 4Q onwards, fuelled by renewed pressure on currency swap spreads: US banks’ liquidity is poised to be caught in the crossfire as the Treasury bolsters its reserves and the Fed’s makes passive moves to shrink its balance sheet. A strong dollar will dent equity market valuations.

- Regardless of who Trump appoints to the Fed, the balance sheet unwind strategy seems to be viewed as having no currency impact. The rest of the world is short by $10.7 trillion, so a surge in the dollar could spark a dangerous short squeeze.

- More details on the ECB’s tapering plans after the elections in Germany. Peripheral spreads will hinge on whether the FDP has a place in the forthcoming coalition government. Still an underweight stance on the Bund.



Raphael Gallardo graduated from the Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, civil engineering course.

Raphael Gallardo began his career as a financial Engineer at Paribas in 1997, before joining the Economic Research division of BNP Paribas in 1999 and the Asset Management in 2005. In 2007, he became a Chief Economist at Axa IM.

He joined Natixis Asset Management in 2013 as an Investment & Client Solutions Strategist.