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Raphaël Gallardo

Investment & Client Solutions Strategist

Autumn in Beijing

28.11.2017 - Raphaël Gallardo

Read market analysis by Raphaël Gallardo, Multi-asset strategist at Investment and Client Solutions investment division:

- We maintain a constructive scenario for global growth in 2018, under the constraint of a stronger dollar and under the condition of a further flattening of the US yield curve.

- Fed policy (Fed funds rate, balancesheet), fiscal reform (of which capital repatriation measures) in a quasi-full employment situation favor the dollar versus developed and emerging currencies.

- Measures to contain shadow banking in China program a downturn in the construction sector, which will weigh down on commodities (base metals above all).

- Emerging debt and currencies under pressure from falling commodity prices and a resurgent dollar

- Crude oil torn between rising geopolitical tensions on the one hand, booming shale oil capex and mounting divisions inside OPEC+

- Risk of sharp steepening of yield curve in the euro area and Japan when ECB and BoJ decide to announce their exit strategies from QE in the course of 2018

- Monitor illiquidity risks in US high yield and the impact of bursting peripheral housing bubbles (Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Sweden) on the balance-sheet of European and Japanese megabanks.

- Overweight euro area and Japanese equities. Neutrality on emerging equity, with a relative preference for Asia versus Latin America. Long euro area credit. Overweight gold versus base metals. Overweight USD versus EUR, CHF, AUD.

 

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Raphael Gallardo graduated from the Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, civil engineering course.

Raphael Gallardo began his career as a financial Engineer at Paribas in 1997, before joining the Economic Research division of BNP Paribas in 1999 and the Asset Management in 2005. In 2007, he became a Chief Economist at Axa IM.

He joined Natixis Asset Management in 2013 as an Investment & Client Solutions Strategist.