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Fixed Income Strategy Weekly

Yields capped by political uncertainties


- US credit quality deteriorating in spite of growth

- Fed: hike possible in March?

- Neutral on Bunds, long exposure on USTs

- High volatility in OAT spreads

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Fed faced with fiscal and political uncertainties


- Yellen’s testimony to guide bond markets
-  Fed’s Tarullo resigns
- Hold neutral stance in USTs, long bias in Bunds
- Upward pressure on Italian and French spreads

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BTPs exposed to downgrade risk


- T-note does not react to strong data
- Fed opts for status quo, cites low inflation expectations
- Raise US duration exposure
- Italian spreads skyrockets to 200bps

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Sovereign spreads under pressure (again)


- Moderate growth in the US (1.9%qoqa in 4Q16)
- FOMC: status quo expected
- BoE: end of Gilt purchases as inflation expectations soar
- Sovereign debt: cut exposure to Italy and France

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Higher volatility in US, euro bond markets


- ECB: purchases below deposit rate in PSPP only
- US GDP growth to hover about 2.5% in 4Q16
- Keep a short bias on USTs and Gilts
- France: inaugural syndication of Green OAT

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