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Raphaël Gallardo

Investment & Client Solutions Strategist

OPEC strategy: checkmate?

22.06.2017 - Raphaël Gallardo

Read market analysis by Raphaël Gallardo, Multi-asset strategist at Investment and Client Solutions investment division:

- Confirmation of the first signs of a gradual slowdown in China and the US. Growth remains robust in Japan and the euro area.
- Trump’s economic agenda still at a standstill.
- The Fed is about to step up monetary normalization in an economy on the verge of a cyclical turnaround, with so-far untried methods (asset sales), in a financial system that has been entirely transformed by new regulation after the fall of Lehman (Basel III, reform in money market funds), against a backdrop of high valuations for Wall Street and low volatility (fixed income, equities). There is clear policy error risk.
- China continues its monetary tightening arbitrarily (shadow banks), but exchange rate pressures remain (capital outflows). The ECB is biding time, while the BoJ is tapering without really saying as much (gradual end to QE program).
- We maintain our overexposure to equities but cut back the size and the beta on our country and sector plays. We still prefer euro area equities to Wall Street, US fixed income to the Bund.

 

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Raphael Gallardo graduated from the Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, civil engineering course.

Raphael Gallardo began his career as a financial Engineer at Paribas in 1997, before joining the Economic Research division of BNP Paribas in 1999 and the Asset Management in 2005. In 2007, he became a Chief Economist at Axa IM.

He joined Natixis Asset Management in 2013 as an Investment & Client Solutions Strategist.